Section 5 of 6
Economic information and modeling report
12 evidence topics · 2 sources
Modeling overview
Summary
ICER modeled lifetime cost effectiveness and five-year budget impact using a hypothetical course price. The HBPB is a modeled benchmark, not an announced U.S. price.
ICER model: time horizon
ICER model: perspective
Health benefit price benchmark
Budget impact model
Approach and framework
Baseline comparators
| Comparator allocation | Quoted description |
|---|---|
| Methods: varenicline plus behavioral support | “10%” |
| Methods: behavioral support alone | “90%” |
| Results narrative: allocation between comparators | “split evenly” |
Perspective and time frame
U.S. healthcare costs: budget horizon and discounting
| Attribute | Quoted description |
|---|---|
| Horizon | “five-year” |
| Costs | “undiscounted” |
Epidemiology and eligible population inputs
Population and uptake assumptions
| Input | Quoted value |
|---|---|
| Adult smoking prevalence | “11.6%” |
| Interest in quitting | “67.7%” |
| Eligible adults | “21,274,829” |
| Annual initiation | “20%” |
| Annual initiators | “4,254,965” |
Cost assumptions
Model outcomes
Healthcare spending after offsets
Results
Base case
Placeholder-price results
| Outcome | Quoted value |
|---|---|
| Annual budget-impact threshold | “$880 million” |
| Eligible population treatable below threshold | “4.3%” |
| Cumulative annual per-person impact: year 1 | “$4,898” |
| Cumulative annual per-person impact: year 5 | “$4,811” |
Scenario analyses
Budget impact model discussion
Summary
These scenarios depend on price and uptake; they are not spending forecasts. Methods specify 10%/90% baseline comparators, whereas the results describe equal allocation. The publication does not resolve which mix was implemented.