Section 5 of 6
Economic information and modeling report
31 evidence topics · 19 sources
Modeling overview
Summary
No budget impact model, cost-effectiveness analysis, sales forecast, or health technology assessment of the vorolanib intravitreal insert (DURAVYU, EYP-1901) was identified, and no price has been announced. EyePoint has stated that wet AMD and DME together represent a "$15B+ global market opportunity" and that it "may need to conduct expensive pharmacoeconomic studies" to secure coverage and reimbursement. No Institute for Clinical and Economic Review assessment of any therapy for neovascular AMD was identified.
The product-specific input most relevant to a future model is treatment burden. In the LUGANO phase 3 trial (topline data, August 2026), the insert reduced treatment burden by 42% versus on-label aflibercept (maximum possible reduction, 60%), which the company stated "translates to two fewer injections on average" through week 56; 54% of participants receiving the insert were supplement-free through week 56. The primary non-inferiority endpoint was not met in the full dataset. LUCIA topline data are expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a potential NDA submission in the first half of 2027.
Comparator spending is concentrated in Medicare Part B. In 2024, fee-for-service Medicare spending was $3.0 billion for Eylea and Eylea HD (329,500 users; $9,200 per user) and $1.9 billion for Vabysmo (173,300 users; $11,100 per user), out of $65.5 billion for all Part B drugs. CMS data for 2024 show $2.37 billion for aflibercept 2 mg (J0178; 293,280 beneficiaries), $666 million for aflibercept 8 mg (J0177; 66,767 beneficiaries), $1.92 billion for faricimab (J2777; 172,503 beneficiaries), and $129 million for ranibizumab (J2778). Standardized Medicare reimbursement per injection declined from 2014 to 2023 for ranibizumab ($1234.35 to $724.74) and aflibercept ($1527.37 to $1379.54).
Published models of other anti-VEGF strategies show that injection frequency and acquisition price determine comparative cost. For the ranibizumab port delivery system, an approved sustained-delivery product, the break-even number of injections versus the system with 1 refill was 10.8 for ranibizumab, 9.3 for aflibercept, and 34.5 for bevacizumab, and the system cost more than bevacizumab in all scenarios; a cost-utility analysis found it cost effective versus ranibizumab injections at 1 year ($75,497 per QALY) but not at 5 years ($304,108 per QALY) or 12 years ($761,646 per QALY). A U.S. payer Markov model found faricimab dominant over aflibercept 2 mg over 5 years (22.6 vs 34 injections), with results most sensitive to drug acquisition prices. A manufacturer-funded model estimated 3-year total costs $1,978.74 lower with aflibercept 8 mg than faricimab in nAMD (12.25 vs 14.80 injections). A U.S. payer budget impact model of brolucizumab for a 1-million-member plan (nAMD prevalence 1.2%, 36.04% of members aged at least 50 years, 80% anti-VEGF uptake) showed that the budget effect changed direction with the dosing regimen assumed, from an annual saving of $94,170 to an increase of $824,696. Bevacizumab-related analyses estimated that an FDA-approved ophthalmic bevacizumab priced at $500 per dose would increase Medicare costs by $457 million, and that equalizing anti-VEGF mix to that of the highest-poverty communities would have lowered 2013 to 2023 Part B spending by approximately $4.2 billion. A 2026 systematic review of 22 economic evaluations found that estimates depended on perspective, time horizon, and single-eye modeling.
Manufacturer market-size statements: wet AMD and DME
Manufacturer statements on pharmacoeconomic evidence and market estimates
LUGANO phase 3: treatment burden and supplemental injections as model inputs
Medicare Part B spending on comparator anti-VEGF products, 2024
| Product (MedPAC label) | Total drug spending, 2024 (billions of dollars) | Number of users, 2024 | Average spending per user, 2024 (dollars) | Change in total drug spending, 2023 to 2024 (%) | Change in number of users, 2023 to 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eylea (includes Eylea and Eylea HD) | “3.0” | “329,500” | “9,200” | “–4” | “–4” |
| Vabysmo | “1.9” | “173,300” | “11,100” | “48” | “54” |
| All Part B drugs | “65.5” | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported | Not reported |
Medicare Part B spending by billing code for intravitreal anti-VEGF products, 2024
| HCPCS code and product | Total spending, 2024 (dollars) | Total claims, 2024 | Total beneficiaries, 2024 | Average spending per claim, 2024 (dollars) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J0178 aflibercept 2 mg (Eylea) | “2365369089” | “1233027” | “293280” | “1918.343304” |
| J0177 aflibercept 8 mg (Eylea HD) | “665780687.8” | “211930” | “66767” | “3141.512234” |
| J2777 faricimab-svoa (Vabysmo) | “1918151107” | “792936” | “172503” | “2419.049087” |
| J2778 ranibizumab (Lucentis) | “128919304.6” | “144995” | “33741” | “889.1293118” |
| Q5128 ranibizumab-eqrn (Cimerli) | “216885671.1” | “169956” | “38028” | “1276.128357” |
| Q5124 ranibizumab-nuna (Byooviz) | “29305816.68” | “29810” | “6422” | “983.0867722” |
| J0179 brolucizumab-dbll (Beovu) | “13575490.79” | “6388” | “1552” | “2125.155102” |
| J2779 ranibizumab via ocular implant (Susvimo) | “2245603.9” | “294” | “195” | “7638.108503” |
| J9035 bevacizumab (Avastin), all indications | “161538584.4” | “342609” | “98961” | “471.4954492” |
Medicare Part B payment limits for comparator anti-VEGF products, July to September 2026
| HCPCS code and product | Billing unit | Payment limit per billing unit (dollars) |
|---|---|---|
| J0178 aflibercept 2 mg (Eylea) | “1 MG” | “743.605” |
| Q5147 aflibercept-ayyh (Pavblu) | “1 MG” | “803.255” |
| J0177 aflibercept 8 mg (Eylea HD) | “1 MG” | “298.683” |
| J2777 faricimab-svoa (Vabysmo) | “0.1 MG” | “32.381” |
| J2778 ranibizumab (Lucentis) | “0.1 mg” | “51.090” |
| Q5128 ranibizumab-eqrn (Cimerli) | “0.1 MG” | “82.528” |
| Q5124 ranibizumab-nuna (Byooviz) | “0.1 MG” | “240.972” |
| J0179 brolucizumab-dbll (Beovu) | “1 MG” | “359.713” |
| J2779 ranibizumab via ocular implant (Susvimo) | “0.1 MG” | “74.795” |
| J9035 bevacizumab (Avastin) | “10 MG” | “74.823” |
Medicare injection volume and reimbursement per injection, 2014 to 2023
Sustained-delivery comparator: cost of the ranibizumab port delivery system versus injections
Sustained-delivery comparator: cost-utility of the ranibizumab port delivery system
Extended-interval comparator: U.S. cost-utility of faricimab versus aflibercept 2 mg
Extended-interval comparator: U.S. payer cost inputs for anti-VEGF injection
| Cost input | Cost (USD) | Stated source |
|---|---|---|
| Faricimab, cost per 6.0 mg dose | “$2089.44” | “CMS Medicare Part B ASP Pricing File (July 2024)” |
| Aflibercept, cost per 2.0 mg dose | “$1670.798” | “CMS Medicare Part B ASP Pricing File (July 2024)” |
| Intravitreal injection (CPT 67028) | “$125.28” | “CMS Physician Fee Schedule (PFS), CY2024, national payment amount” |
| Initial office visit (CPT 99204) | “$226.53” | “CMS Physician Fee Schedule (PFS), CY2024, national payment amount” |
| Subsequent office visit (CPT 92014) | “$157.64” | “CMS Physician Fee Schedule (PFS), CY2024, national payment amount” |
| Optical coherence tomography (CPT 92134) | “$54.17” | “CMS Physician Fee Schedule (PFS), CY2024, national payment amount” |
Extended-interval comparator: direct and indirect costs of aflibercept 8 mg versus faricimab
U.S. payer budget impact model of a new anti-VEGF agent: brolucizumab
Off-label bevacizumab and biosimilars: effect on Medicare Part B costs
Community-level anti-VEGF agent mix and Medicare Part B spending
Payer coverage policies: bevacizumab-first requirements
Systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses of VEGF inhibitors in wet AMD
Break-even pricing framework for anti-VEGF agents with equivalent outcomes
Eleven-year and two-year cost per QALY of anti-VEGF monotherapy, 2018 US dollars
Injection frequency and office visits as cost-utility model drivers
Per-injection average sales price, Medicare payment and patient cost, October 2022
| Drug and dose | Average sales price (dollars) | Medicare payment (dollars) | Patient cost (dollars) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranibizumab 0.3 mg | “731.36” | “607.79” | “155.05” |
| Ranibizumab 0.5 mg | “1218.91” | “1012.96” | “258.41” |
| Ranibizumab-nuna 0.5 mg | “1163.90” | “967.25” | “178.18” |
| Ranibizumab-eqrn 0.5 mg | “1400.8” | “1164.12” | “296.97” |
| Aflibercept 2 mg | “1703.76” | “1415.90” | “361.20” |
| Bevacizumab 1.25 mg | “84.91” | “70.56” | “18” |
Medicare payment methodology and allowable payments per anti-VEGF injection, October 2022
Biosimilar switching scenarios and break-even biosimilar prices
Medicare expenditure and annual cost per treated beneficiary by agent
Injections per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries by agent, 2014 to 2023
Billing code attribution behind the apparent rise in bevacizumab reimbursement
Scope, model structures and time horizons of published economic evaluations in wet AMD
Cost components included by study perspective in published evaluations
Comparative cost-effectiveness findings by agent across published evaluations
Methodological limits that affect reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios
Budget impact model
Approach and framework
No evidence found.
Perspective and time frame
No evidence found.
Epidemiology and eligible population inputs
No evidence found.
Cost assumptions
No evidence found.
Model outcomes
No evidence found.
Results
Base case
No evidence found.
Scenario analyses
No evidence found.
Budget impact model discussion
No evidence found.