Section 5 of 6
Economic information and modeling report
54 evidence topics · 30 sources
Modeling overview
Summary
No cost-effectiveness analysis of tavapadon had been published before the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) evidence report of 16 September 2026. ICER built two semi-Markov models over a lifetime horizon using a placeholder price of $15,000 per year. In early Parkinson's disease (Model 1), tavapadon cost $26,500 more than levodopa and produced 0.015 fewer QALYs. As an adjunct to levodopa in participants with motor fluctuations (Model 2), tavapadon cost $16,900 more than a dopamine agonist market basket for a gain of 0.010 QALYs, or approximately $1.7 million per QALY gained from the health care sector perspective and $2.0 million from the modified societal perspective. No positive price made tavapadon cost-effective in Model 1; the health-benefit price benchmark in Model 2 was $6,598 to $6,861 per year (health care sector) and $4,764 to $5,026 per year (modified societal). In probabilistic analyses, tavapadon was cost-effective in 24.5% of Model 1 simulations at $200,000 per evLY gained and in fewer than 10% of Model 2 simulations at every threshold. AbbVie has published no price statement. Benzinga reported on 28 September 2026 that a William Blair analyst gave a list price of $4,900 per 30-day supply, or $58,800 per year, and ICER's public meeting slides of 1 October 2026 list a reported wholesale acquisition cost of $58,800 per year; ICER's published budget impact results use the $15,000 placeholder. GlobalData forecast United States tavapadon revenue of $199 million by 2034, and AbbVie targets more than $5 billion in combined peak sales for three Parkinson's disease products, one of which is tavapadon. Published economic evaluations of other adjunctive therapies report $46,900 per QALY for opicapone versus entacapone in the United States, and a Canadian review found safinamide dominated by other adjunctive treatments.
Published cost-effectiveness analyses of tavapadon
ICER cost-effectiveness models: structure and populations
ICER cost-effectiveness models: base-case results at the placeholder price
ICER cost-effectiveness models: sensitivity and probabilistic analyses
ICER cost-effectiveness models: scenario analyses
ICER health-benefit price benchmark
ICER correction between the draft and revised evidence reports
Economic considerations stated in a meta-analysis
Forecast United States revenue for tavapadon
Manufacturer peak sales target for the Parkinson's disease portfolio
Analyst expectations for launch uptake
William Blair forecast of tavapadon sales, channel mix, and Medicare coverage timing
Opicapone versus entacapone as adjuncts to levodopa, United States payer perspective
Opicapone versus entacapone as adjuncts to levodopa, English National Health Service perspective
Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors versus no adjunct, South Korea
Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors versus no adjunct, South Korea: model structure, perspective, and time horizon
Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors versus no adjunct, South Korea: cost and utility inputs
| Input | Quoted value |
|---|---|
| Opicapone drug cost per day (USD) | “2.05” |
| Entacapone drug cost per day (USD) | “0.78” |
| No COMT inhibitor (levodopa) drug cost per day (USD) | “0.11” |
| Prescription cost per year (USD) | “111.91” |
| Health state cost per year, OFF-time less than 25% (USD) | “789.4” |
| Health state cost per year, OFF-time 25% or more (USD) | “2,429.8” |
| Utility, OFF-time less than 25% | “0.780” |
| Utility, OFF-time 25% or more | “0.630” |
| Utility, OFF-time less than 25%, after 10 cycles | “0.643” |
| Utility, OFF-time 25% or more, after 10 cycles | “0.555” |
| Utility, OFF-time less than 25%, after 20 cycles | “0.387” |
| Utility, OFF-time 25% or more, after 20 cycles | “0.299” |
| Disutility, dyskinesia | “0.070” |
Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors versus no adjunct, South Korea: base-case incremental costs and QALYs
Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors versus no adjunct, South Korea: sensitivity analyses
Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors versus no adjunct, South Korea: model assumptions and limitations
Canadian reimbursement review of safinamide cost-effectiveness
Pramipexole versus levodopa as initial therapy in early Parkinson's disease, United States randomized clinical-economic trial
On-demand therapy for OFF episodes: apomorphine sublingual film, United States payer perspective
Device-aided therapy for advanced Parkinson's disease: carbidopa-levodopa enteral suspension, United States
Budget impact model
Approach and framework
ICER potential budget impact analysis: definition and link to the cost-effectiveness models
Perspective and time frame
ICER potential budget impact analysis: time horizon and discounting
Epidemiology and eligible population inputs
ICER potential budget impact analysis: eligible population and uptake
Prevalence of Parkinson's disease among United States adults by age and insurance type, 2024
| Characteristic | Quoted number of persons estimated to have Parkinson's disease | Quoted population | Quoted prevalence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age 18 to 49 years | “51,719” | “141,792,556” | “0.04%” |
| Age 50 to 64 years | “222,591” | “61,660,017” | “0.36%” |
| Age 65 to 74 years | “340,161” | “35,223,309” | “0.97%” |
| Age 75 years and older | “478,036” | “26,298,663” | “1.82%” |
| Insurance: private | “99,423” | “138,862,094” | “0.07%” |
| Insurance: Medicare | “945,452” | “73,280,221” | “1.29%” |
| Overall | “1,092,506” | “264,974,545” | “0.41%” |
Antiparkinsonian drug use and drug class use among Medicare beneficiaries with prevalent Parkinson's disease, 2007 to 2010
| Measure | Quoted value, 2007 | Quoted value, 2008 | Quoted value, 2009 | Quoted value, 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total number of patients with Parkinson's disease | “9482” | “9626” | “9566” | “9503” |
| Number of antiparkinsonian drug users | “7721” | “7872” | “7835” | “7725” |
| Use of any antiparkinsonian drug, % | “81” | “82” | “82” | “81” |
| Levodopa use, % | “90” | “90” | “90” | “90” |
| Dopamine agonist use, % | “31” | “31” | “30” | “29” |
| MAO-B inhibitor use, % | “9” | “9” | “10” | “11” |
| Amantadine use, % | “8” | “7” | “7” | “7” |
| COMT inhibitor use, % | “8” | “7” | “7” | “6” |
Untreated share and first-line medication in newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease, United States claims, 2014 to 2017
| Initial medication | Quoted number (%) of treated patients |
|---|---|
| Levodopa | “4932 (70.1)” |
| Rasagiline | “579 (8.2)” |
| Ropinirole | “357 (5.1)” |
| Pramipexole | “324 (4.6)” |
| Amantadine | “169 (2.4)” |
| Rotigotine | “79 (1.1)” |
First treatment class after diagnosis in incident Parkinson's disease, United States claims, 2008 to 2016
Adjunctive treatment classes among levodopa-treated patients with and without OFF episodes, United States
| Quoted current prescribed treatment class | Quoted overall (N = 722) | Quoted patients without OFF episodes (n = 401) | Quoted patients with OFF episodes (n = 321) |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Carbidopa/levodopa” | “722 (100.0)” | “401 (100.0)” | “321 (100.0)” |
| “COMT inhibitor” | “119 (16.5)” | “48 (12.0)” | “71 (22.1)” |
| “Dopamine agonist” | “177 (24.5)” | “73 (18.2)” | “104 (32.4)” |
| “MAO-B inhibitor” | “118 (16.3)” | “50 (12.5)” | “68 (21.2)” |
| “NMDA receptor antagonist” | “90 (12.5)” | “24 (6.0)” | “66 (20.6)” |
Concomitant medication classes at levodopa initiation among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, 2017 to 2019
Average daily dose of carbidopa-levodopa among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, 2017 to 2019
| Formulation | Quoted number of patients | Quoted mean ± SD daily dose (mg) | Quoted median daily dose (mg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | “201,241” | “510.99 ± 365.93” | “400.0” |
| Immediate-release carbidopa-levodopa | “166,788” | “480.39 ± 334.94” | “400.0” |
| Immediate-release plus controlled-release carbidopa-levodopa | “19,086” | “585.52 ± 359.21” | “500.0” |
| Controlled-release carbidopa-levodopa | “10,369” | “551.92 ± 296.38” | “520.0” |
| Extended-release carbidopa-levodopa | “4998” | “1140.26”, “± 709.51” | “980.0” |
Adherence and persistence after initiation of levodopa or a dopamine agonist, United States Medicaid claims
| Measure | Quoted adjusted value, levodopa | Quoted adjusted value, dopamine agonist | Quoted p value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean proportion of days covered (SD) | “0.621 (0.322)” | “0.546 (0.343)” | “0.007” |
| Adherent patients (proportion of days covered of 0.80 or higher) | “41.4%” | “33.8%” | “0.060” |
| Mean persistent days (SD) | “209.5 (114.2)” | “185.4 (117.8)” | “0.011” |
| Persistent patients | “51.4%” | “40.6%” | “0.008” |
Twelve-month persistence and adherence with dopamine agonist monotherapy, United States commercial and Medicare Advantage claims
Cost assumptions
ICER potential budget impact analysis: prices evaluated
ICER cost-effectiveness models: dosing regimens costed for tavapadon and comparators
| Intervention | Quoted dosing | Quoted annual drug cost |
|---|---|---|
| Tavapadon | “5–15 mg once daily” | “$15,000 (placeholder)” |
| Levodopa (Model 1) | “Carbidopa/levodopa 25/100 mg, 8×/day” | “$289” |
| Dopamine agonist market basket (Model 2) | “Ropinirole 3 mg TID; pramipexole 1 mg TID; rotigotine 2 mg/24-hr patch” | “$3,588 (weighted)” |
| Monotherapy market basket (Model 2) | “65% Carbidopa/levodopa 25/100 mg, 8×/day; 35% on DA market basket (Ropinirole 3 mg TID; pramipexole 1 mg TID; rotigotine 2 mg/24-hr patch)” | “$1,444” |
Rasagiline: recommended dose in the prescribing information
Selegiline: recommended dose in the prescribing information
Safinamide: recommended dose in the prescribing information
Entacapone: recommended dose and number of daily doses in the prescribing information
Opicapone: recommended dose in the prescribing information
Istradefylline: recommended dose in the prescribing information
Amantadine extended-release capsules: recommended dose in the prescribing information
Model outcomes
ICER potential budget impact analysis: outcome measures and threshold
Results
Base case
First-line treatment compared with levodopa at the placeholder price
Add-on treatment compared with other dopamine agonists at the placeholder price
Scenario analyses
Budget impact at cost-effectiveness threshold prices
Budget impact model discussion
Summary
The only budget impact analysis of tavapadon identified is the ICER potential budget impact analysis in the evidence report of 16 September 2026, which used a placeholder price of $15,000 per year because tavapadon had not yet received regulatory approval. AbbVie has published no price statement; a William Blair analyst, as reported by Benzinga on 28 September 2026, and ICER's public meeting slides of 1 October 2026 give a list price of $58,800 per year, and ICER's published budget impact results use the $15,000 placeholder. It sized an eligible United States population of 944,927 (436,786 first-line and 508,141 add-on to levodopa) and assumed that 20% would initiate treatment in each of five years. At the placeholder price, 46% of the first-line population and 59% of the add-on population could be treated before annual spending reached ICER's threshold of $821 million; at the add-on threshold prices ($4,501 to $7,123 per year), 100% could be treated. The analysis takes a health care cost perspective over five years without discounting and does not model a health plan membership. AbbVie's comments on the draft report stated that tavapadon is unlikely to displace levodopa as first-line therapy, which would reduce the first-line population the analysis includes, and that the budget-impact calculations are not presented in enough detail for independent verification. AbbVie expects a modest initial uptake because tavapadon will not be added to Medicare formularies immediately after approval. The actual budget impact will depend on the launch price and on how often tavapadon displaces generic dopamine agonists and levodopa, whose acquisition costs were $3,588 and $289 per year in the ICER models.