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Lirafugratinib

Previously treated FGFR2 fusion or rearrangement-positive cholangiocarcinoma

Also known as Lyrfigtu, RLY-4008
Evidence report
Eligible patients per year
0.99
Year 1 budget impact
+$615$0.000051 PMPM
Year 2 budget impact
+$2,918$0.00024 PMPM
Year 3 budget impact
+$6,543$0.00055 PMPM
3-year budget impact
+$10,077$0.00028 PMPM

Budget impact modelIn development

Overview

Estimates the change in a United States health plan's spending on treatment of previously treated FGFR2 fusion or rearrangement-positive cholangiocarcinoma when lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu) becomes available.

Perspective
United States health plan as third-party payer; patient cost sharing, rebates, and discounts are not deducted
Time horizon
3 years, undiscounted
Price basis
Wholesale acquisition cost for oral agents as of 1 October 2026; Medicare payment limits for infused drugs (October 2026) and Medicare fee schedule amounts for services (calendar year 2026); the lirafugratinib price is a placeholder because no price had been published
Inputs checked
2026-10-01

Every field can be changed, and the results recalculate as it is. A field is marked with the basis of its value, which links to the quote, data row, or assumption behind it. PMPM is the cost per member per month.

Target population

StepInputPeople
Plan membersAssumption1,000,000
Newly diagnosed with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma each yearper 100,000Quoted source19.9
Unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic, at diagnosis or after recurrence%Quoted source17.7
Tumor molecular profiling performed%Quoted source11.4
FGFR2 fusion or rearrangement found%Quoted source1.48
Receives second-line or later systemic therapy%Quoted source0.99

Market share

Share of eligible patients starting each treatment, by year. Chemotherapy (FOLFOX) takes whatever share the other rows leave. Assumption

Treatment costs

InputLirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)Pemigatinib (Pemazyre)Futibatinib (Lytgobi)Chemotherapy (FOLFOX)
Drug cost per cycle or packUSDAssumptionUSDPublished dataUSDPublished dataUSDPublished data
Days covered by a cycle or packdaysQuoted sourcedaysQuoted sourcedaysQuoted sourcedaysQuoted source
Dose intensity%Assumption%Assumption%Assumption%Assumption
Administration cost per cycleNot applicableNot applicableNot applicableUSDPublished data
Median time on treatmentmonthsQuoted sourcemonthsQuoted sourcemonthsQuoted sourcemonthsQuoted source
Maximum time on treatmentNot applicableNot applicableNot applicablemonthsQuoted source
Adverse event cost per patient startingUSDQuoted sourceUSDQuoted sourceUSDQuoted sourceUSDQuoted source

Monitoring

TreatmentItemScheduleCost per occurrence
Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)Ophthalmological examination with optical coherence tomographyBefore treatment, every 2 months to month 13, then every 4 months Quoted sourceUSDPublished data
Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)Serum phosphateEvery month AssumptionUSDPublished data
Pemigatinib (Pemazyre)Ophthalmological examination with optical coherence tomographyBefore treatment, every 2 months to month 6, then every 3 months Quoted sourceUSDPublished data
Pemigatinib (Pemazyre)Serum phosphateEvery month AssumptionUSDPublished data
Futibatinib (Lytgobi)Ophthalmological examination with optical coherence tomographyBefore treatment, every 2 months to month 6, then every 3 months Quoted sourceUSDPublished data
Futibatinib (Lytgobi)Serum phosphateEvery month AssumptionUSDPublished data

Cost per patient starting treatment

ResultLirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)Pemigatinib (Pemazyre)Futibatinib (Lytgobi)Chemotherapy (FOLFOX)
Drug and administration cost per month on treatment$29,318$30,578$28,058$952
Mean months on treatment13.610.413.12.7
Drug acquisition, full course$397,594$317,627$368,364$381
Administration, full course$0$0$0$2,177
Monitoring, full course$1,101$885$1,051$0
Adverse event management, full course$834$644$254$4,113
Total cost of a full course$399,530$319,156$369,669$6,670

Results

Budget impact by year

ResultYear 1Year 2Year 33-year total
Patients starting Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)0.100.200.300.59
Total cost without Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)$102,980$212,077$251,982$567,039
Total cost with Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)$103,595$214,995$258,525$577,116
Budget impact+$615+$2,918+$6,543+$10,077
Cost per member per month without Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)$0.0086$0.0177$0.0210$0.0158
Cost per member per month with Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)$0.0086$0.0179$0.0215$0.0160
Budget impact per member per month (PMPM)$0.000051$0.00024$0.00055$0.00028
Budget impact per member per year$0.00062$0.0029$0.0065$0.0101

Budget impact by cost category

Cost categoryYear 1Year 2Year 33-year total
Drug acquisition+$571+$2,822+$6,395+$9,788
Administration$0$0$0$0
Monitoring+$3+$15+$26+$45
Adverse event management+$41+$81+$122+$244

Patients starting treatment and treatment cost, by treatment

TreatmentMixYear 1 startsYear 2 startsYear 3 startsYear 1 costYear 2 costYear 3 cost
Lirafugratinib (Lyrfigtu)Without0.000.000.00$0$0$0
With0.100.200.30$13,333$41,985$76,953
Pemigatinib (Pemazyre)Without0.340.340.34$44,538$88,645$102,535
With0.300.260.21$39,003$72,093$73,112
Futibatinib (Lytgobi)Without0.450.450.45$57,211$122,116$148,132
With0.390.340.28$50,028$99,602$107,145
Chemotherapy (FOLFOX)Without0.200.200.20$1,232$1,316$1,316
With0.200.200.20$1,232$1,316$1,316

Sensitivity analysis

One-way sensitivity analysis of the 3-year budget impact

Each input is set to its low and its high value in turn, with every other value as entered above. The 12 inputs that move the result most are shown; the vertical line marks the current result, +$10,077.

Input (low to high)At low valueAt high valueRange of the result
Lirafugratinib, median time on treatment6.2 months to 11.3 months-$17,231+$21,930
Futibatinib, median time on treatment2.8 months to 9.1 months+$48,675+$10,077
Lirafugratinib, placeholder price of one 28-day carton$25,811.36 to $32,194.40+$4,433+$35,514
Pemigatinib, median time on treatment2.8 months to 7.4 months+$34,977+$9,267
Lirafugratinib, share of cartons dispensed while on treatment85% to 100%-$9,623+$10,077
Futibatinib, wholesale acquisition cost of one 7-day carton$6,083 to $7,743.41+$14,109-$3,996
Pemigatinib, wholesale acquisition cost of one 14-tablet bottle$18,744.25 to $21,940.88+$15,784+$8,029
Receives second-line or later systemic therapy30.3% to 73.3%+$4,578+$11,074
Annual incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma1.38 per 100,000 to 2.64 per 100,000+$6,988+$13,368
FGFR2 fusion or rearrangement found among profiled tumors9% to 16%+$6,976+$12,402
Tumor molecular profiling performed50.3% to 79.9%+$7,883+$12,521
Lirafugratinib, adverse event cost per patient starting$90.64 to $4,537.06+$9,636+$12,268

Scenario analyses

ScenarioYear 1Year 2Year 33-year totalPMPM
Values as entered above+$615+$2,918+$6,543+$10,077$0.00028
Lirafugratinib priced at parity with PemazyreThe lirafugratinib carton costs $28,129.33, the wholesale acquisition cost of pemigatinib per 28 days.+$1,183+$4,709+$9,828+$15,720$0.00044
Lirafugratinib priced at parity with LytgobiThe lirafugratinib carton costs $25,811.36, the derived wholesale acquisition cost of futibatinib per 28 days.+$48+$1,128+$3,257+$4,433$0.00012
Lirafugratinib priced at the median recent launch priceThe lirafugratinib carton costs $32,194.40, the median launch wholesale acquisition cost per 28 days of 8 oral targeted oncology products introduced in 2024 and 2025.+$3,172+$10,990+$21,352+$35,514$0.00099
Lower uptakeLirafugratinib reaches 5%, 10%, and 15% of eligible patients in years 1 to 3, drawn from pemigatinib and futibatinib in proportion to their shares.+$306+$1,467+$3,280+$5,053$0.00014
Higher uptakeLirafugratinib reaches 32%, 40%, and 40% of eligible patients, which is 40%, 50%, and 50% of the FGFR inhibitor class, the uptake NICE assumed for futibatinib against pemigatinib.+$1,968+$7,865+$13,469+$23,302$0.00065
Class expansionLirafugratinib reaches 10%, 20%, and 30% of eligible patients, with half of its share drawn from chemotherapy and half from pemigatinib and futibatinib, so the FGFR inhibitor class grows from 80% to 85%, 90%, and 95%.+$6,665+$21,822+$40,790+$69,278$0.0019
Treatment until progressionMedian time on treatment equals median progression-free survival for the three FGFR inhibitors: 11.3 months for lirafugratinib, 7.0 months for pemigatinib, and 9.0 months for futibatinib.+$1,270+$6,550+$15,336+$23,156$0.00064
Every patient with advanced disease is profiledTumor molecular profiling is performed in 100% of patients with advanced intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, as guidelines recommend.+$957+$4,539+$10,175+$15,671$0.00044
Lirafugratinib dose intensity of 85%Cartons of lirafugratinib are dispensed for 85% of the time on treatment, the median relative dose intensity of futibatinib in its pivotal trial.-$1,364-$3,333-$4,926-$9,623-$0.00027

Inputs and sources

A value on a quoted source carries the quote as the evidence report holds it, linked to the document it came from. A value on published data names the row of the file it was read from. An assumption is a value no source states.

Methods and limitations

Methods

  • The model follows the structure of the ISPOR budget impact analysis good practice report (Sullivan et al., 2014): an eligible population, a treatment mix without and with the new product, the cost of each mix in each year, and the difference between the two.
  • The eligible population is incidence-based. Plan members are multiplied in turn by the annual incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, the share with unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic disease, the share whose tumor is profiled, the share with an FGFR2 fusion or rearrangement, and the share who receive second-line or later systemic therapy. The same number of patients becomes eligible in each of the 3 years.
  • Profiling and FGFR2 status come before the treatment-line step because the only United States estimates of second-line treatment in FGFR2-positive patients were measured in patients already profiled, and they are about twice the rate in patients not selected by FGFR2 status (66.7% against 65.9% x 46% = 30.3%).
  • Two treatment mixes are compared: pemigatinib, futibatinib, and chemotherapy (FOLFOX) without lirafugratinib, and the same treatments with lirafugratinib taking a share that rises over 3 years. Chemotherapy takes whatever share the FGFR inhibitors leave, so each year totals 100%.
  • Four cost categories are counted: drug acquisition, administration of FOLFOX, monitoring (ophthalmological examination with optical coherence tomography, and serum phosphate), and management of grade 3 or higher adverse events.
  • Costs fall in the calendar year in which they are incurred. Patients start treatment evenly through each year and leave it along an exponential curve fitted to the median time on treatment, so a course that runs past the end of a year is paid for in the next one; FOLFOX stops at 12 cycles.
  • Costs are not discounted and prices are not inflated over the 3 years.
  • Oral agents are costed at wholesale acquisition cost as of 1 October 2026 without rebates; FOLFOX, administration, examinations, and laboratory tests are costed at Medicare payment amounts for 2026. The lirafugratinib price is a placeholder.
  • Uncertainty is shown by a one-way sensitivity analysis over every input with a low and a high value, and by 9 scenarios on price, uptake, the source of the lirafugratinib share, time on treatment, profiling, and dose intensity.

Limitations

  • No price for lirafugratinib had been published by 1 October 2026. The base case uses a placeholder, the mean list price of the two approved FGFR inhibitors, and the result changes almost in proportion to it. Whether the cartons for reduced doses will cost less is unknown; dose reductions occurred in 81% of patients in the pivotal cohort.
  • No United States data on the division of second-line treatment between FGFR inhibitors and chemotherapy in this population were found. Every market share is an assumption, including the uptake of lirafugratinib.
  • The funnel ends in patients who receive second-line or later systemic therapy, so patients given best supportive care alone are outside the eligible population and the model does not show a change in how many patients are treated. All chemotherapy is costed as FOLFOX; other regimens and clinical trial treatment are not costed separately.
  • Time on treatment comes from single-arm trials. The lirafugratinib median of 41 weeks was reported while some patients were still on treatment, and a single exponential curve fits the labeled exposure (73% at 6 months, 37% beyond 12 months) only approximately. One United States dataset reported a median time to discontinuation of 2.8 months for both approved FGFR inhibitors, which the low bounds carry.
  • The shares with advanced disease and with tumor profiling come from 8 academic centers and from diagnoses since 2009. No rate for community practice after 2020 was found. The incidence rate is for adults, age-adjusted to the 2000 standard population, and dates from 2017.
  • The model counts FGFR inhibitor-naive patients becoming eligible each year. The label does not exclude patients previously treated with an FGFR inhibitor, and the existing pool of such patients at launch is not counted; its size is unknown.
  • Rebates, discounts, and patient cost sharing are not deducted. The futibatinib wholesale acquisition cost is derived from its published average wholesale price divided by 1.2. A commercial plan's payment rates for services differ from the Medicare amounts used.
  • Costs left out: phosphate binders (at most about $137 per treated patient, for futibatinib), diagnostic testing (the same in both mixes), disease management, end-of-life care, and any treatment after the modeled line.
  • Adverse event costs rest on unit costs from other cancers, on proxies where no United States cost exists (nail toxicity, hypophosphatemia), and on an assumed cost year for one claims study. Two unit costs in the high bound for FOLFOX are values printed in a figure and one in the low bounds comes from a preprint. Adverse event rates come from separate single-arm trials and are not adjusted for differences between their populations.
  • No published United States budget impact model or per member per month benchmark for an FGFR inhibitor in cholangiocarcinoma was found. The base case of 0.99 eligible patients per 1,000,000 members per year compares with 0.62 and 0.89 per 1,000,000 population in the two NICE resource impact assessments and 3.77 per 1,000,000 in the sponsor's Canadian budget impact analysis of pemigatinib.
  • With about 1 eligible patient per 1,000,000 members per year, a plan of this size will see whole patients in some years and none in others; the results are expected values.