Section 5 of 6
Economic information and modeling report
93 evidence topics · 66 sources
Modeling overview
Summary
No cost-effectiveness analysis, budget impact model, or health technology assessment of lirafugratinib was identified, and no price had been announced as of September 2026. Elevar Therapeutics expects United States availability by the fourth quarter of 2026. Under the December 2024 license, Relay Therapeutics is eligible for up to $75 million in upfront and regulatory milestones, up to $425 million in commercial milestones, and tiered royalties up to the low-teens percentage; by June 30, 2026 Relay had received $5.0 million on execution, $3.7 million on transfer of materials, and $10.0 million in milestone payments, and remained eligible for up to $485.0 million.
Comparator economics come from pemigatinib and futibatinib. Canada's Drug Agency recommended reimbursement of pemigatinib in 2025 on condition of a price reduction, after a 2022 recommendation not to reimburse; its reanalysis estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $252,718 and $261,226 per quality-adjusted life-year versus active symptom control alone and mFOLFOX plus active symptom control, and price reductions exceeding 95% would be needed to reach $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. From a Taiwanese payer perspective, pemigatinib was not cost-effective over 5 years at a hypothesized price (NT$5,814,700 per quality-adjusted life-year versus mFOLFOX), whereas a lifetime analysis using final FIGHT-202 data estimated US$83,475 per quality-adjusted life-year, below the threshold applied. A Greek analysis estimated €69,928 per quality-adjusted life-year versus mFOLFOX plus active symptom control, and a United States conference poster comparing pemigatinib with gemcitabine and cisplatin reported an overall survival-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $183,628. NICE recommended pemigatinib in July 2021 (TA722) as a life-extending treatment at the end of life, on condition of a commercial arrangement; the company's base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, including an updated patient access scheme, were £42,076 and £45,029 per quality-adjusted life-year gained compared with mFOLFOX plus active symptom control and active symptom control alone, the committee-preferred assumptions gave between £45,051 and £45,808 and between £44,354 and £45,010, against an upper limit of £50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for a life-extending treatment at the end of life. NICE recommended futibatinib (TA1005) as an alternative to pemigatinib, which it concluded was the only relevant comparator: matching-adjusted indirect comparison hazard ratios for futibatinib compared with pemigatinib were 0.95 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.21) for overall survival and 1.07 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.30) for progression-free survival, a cost comparison found similar costs, and all incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are confidential because of the confidential pemigatinib discount. A second Taiwanese analysis of a biomarker-driven regimen (pemigatinib for FGFR2 fusion-positive and mFOLFOX for fusion-negative intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma) against fluorouracil estimated NT$3,411,098 per quality-adjusted life-year, with a probability of cost-effectiveness of 53.2%, and a positive incremental net monetary benefit when the price of pemigatinib was reduced by 40%. No Institute for Clinical and Economic Review assessment was identified. A systematic review of 20 economic studies in biliary tract cancer concluded that most current-price targeted agents were not cost-effective in the jurisdictions studied. Worldwide net revenue of pemigatinib across all indications was $86.7 million in 2025.
Economic model, cost-effectiveness analysis, or health technology assessment of lirafugratinib
No evidence found.
Announced price of lirafugratinib
No evidence found.
Announced United States launch timing for lirafugratinib
Partnership economics for lirafugratinib: Elevar Therapeutics license terms
Partnership economics for lirafugratinib: payments received and milestones outstanding
Systematic review of published economic evidence in biliary tract cancer
Economic evidence specific to the second-line setting in biliary tract cancer
Cost-effectiveness analyses of pemigatinib in previously treated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
Net product revenue of pemigatinib, all indications worldwide
Health technology assessment of pemigatinib in Canada: 2025 reimbursement recommendation
Health technology assessment of pemigatinib in Canada: 2022 reimbursement recommendation
Health technology assessment of pemigatinib in England, as reported by the manufacturer
Health technology assessment of pemigatinib in England: NICE TA722 recommendation
Health technology assessment of pemigatinib in England: comparators and committee-preferred ICERs
Cost-effectiveness analysis of pemigatinib from the Taiwanese payer perspective, 2020 FIGHT-202 data
Cost-effectiveness analysis of pemigatinib from the Taiwanese payer perspective, 2024 FIGHT-202 final data
Cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib or mFOLFOX regimen versus fluorouracil from the Taiwanese payer perspective
Cost-effectiveness analysis of pemigatinib from a Greek payer perspective
Cost-effectiveness analysis of pemigatinib from a United States perspective
Health technology assessment of futibatinib in England: NICE TA1005 recommendation
Health technology assessment of futibatinib in England: comparator, indirect comparison, and cost comparison
Institute for Clinical and Economic Review assessment of FGFR inhibitors in cholangiocarcinoma
No evidence found.
Health technology assessment of zanidatamab, a second-line targeted therapy for advanced biliary tract cancer, in England
Cost-effectiveness analysis of ivosidenib in previously treated IDH1 mutant cholangiocarcinoma from an Italian perspective
Cost-effectiveness analysis of first-line durvalumab added to gemcitabine and cisplatin from a United States payer perspective
Cost-effectiveness analysis of first-line pembrolizumab added to chemotherapy from a United States payer perspective
Budget impact model
Approach and framework
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: approach and framework
No evidence found.
Model structures used in economic evaluations of advanced biliary tract cancer
Model structures used in economic evaluations of FGFR inhibitors in cholangiocarcinoma
Model structure and inputs of the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib regimen
Model structures used in NICE appraisals of FGFR inhibitors in cholangiocarcinoma
Use of FGFR inhibitors among patients with FGFR2 fusion-positive biliary tract cancer at academic centers
Numbers of patients starting futibatinib and pemigatinib in United States electronic medical records and claims, 2023 or later
Uptake of pemigatinib assumed in the Canadian budget impact reanalysis
Uptake of futibatinib against pemigatinib assumed in the NICE resource impact assessment
Market share assumed for later-entrant oral targeted oncology agents in United States budget impact models
Perspective and time frame
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: perspective and time frame
No evidence found.
Perspectives and time horizons used in economic evaluations of advanced biliary tract cancer
Perspectives, time horizons, and discount rates used in economic evaluations of FGFR inhibitors in cholangiocarcinoma
Time horizon and willingness-to-pay threshold in the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib regimen
Epidemiology and eligible population inputs
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: eligible population inputs
No evidence found.
Manufacturer estimate of the United States population with FGFR2-mediated cancers
Frequency of FGFR2 fusions or rearrangements used for eligible population sizing
FGFR2 fusion prevalence and incidence inputs in the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis
Eligible population assumptions in the Canadian budget impact reanalysis of pemigatinib
Share of patients with advanced biliary tract cancer who reach second-line therapy in United States claims data
Incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in the SEER 22 registries, 2000 to 2020
Age range and age adjustment of the SEER 18 incidence rates for cholangiocarcinoma
Advanced disease, palliative systemic chemotherapy, and genomic profiling in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma at 8 United States centers
| Measure in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma | Value |
|---|---|
| Total number of patients with advanced disease (locally advanced, primary metastatic, recurrent metastatic) | “543 (88.9%)” |
| Treated with palliative systemic chemotherapy | “388/589 (65.9%)” |
Eligibility for resection at presentation and recurrence after resection
Receipt of second-line therapy among patients with advanced cholangiocarcinoma and FGFR2 fusions or rearrangements in a United States clinico-genomic database
Cost assumptions
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: cost assumptions
No evidence found.
Drug acquisition cost of pemigatinib in Taiwan
Drug acquisition cost of pemigatinib and futibatinib in England
Cost inputs and genetic testing fee in the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib regimen
Modelled lifetime cost per patient of pemigatinib and second-line comparators from a Greek payer perspective
Real-world United States health care cost per patient per month among patients treated with pemigatinib, claims data 2020 to 2023
United States monthly price of futibatinib, an FGFR inhibitor comparator
United States drug cost inputs per treatment cycle for regimens used in advanced biliary tract cancer
Real-world United States cost per patient per month by line of therapy in advanced biliary tract cancer
Real-world United States cost per patient per month after failure of first-line therapy for advanced cholangiocarcinoma
Real-world United States cost per patient per month among patients treated with pemigatinib
Modelled lifetime treatment costs per patient in advanced biliary tract cancer from a United States payer perspective
Administration and monitoring cost assumptions for FOLFOX, the principal second-line chemotherapy comparator
Biomarker testing cost assumptions for biomarker-selected second-line comparators
FGFR2 testing cost and availability assumed in health technology assessments of pemigatinib
FGFR2 testing and optical coherence tomography costs in the NICE appraisal of pemigatinib
Time on treatment assumed in the NICE appraisal of futibatinib
Placeholder price for a product without a published price in the ICER reference case
Package sizes of pemigatinib and futibatinib in the United States labels
Relative dose intensity of futibatinib in the FDA review of the pivotal trial
Duration of pemigatinib and futibatinib treatment in United States real-world studies
FOLFOX regimen, cycle length, and number of cycles received in ABC-06
Grade 3 adverse reactions and grade 3 or 4 phosphate decrease with futibatinib in the United States label (N=103)
Chemotherapy-related grade 3 to 5 adverse events with FOLFOX in ABC-06 (N=81)
Site of care assumed for grade 3 or higher adverse events in United States cost models
United States cost per adverse event from claims of patients treated with VEGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors, 2015 to 2021
United States cost of neutropenia, febrile neutropenia, and infection
| Adverse event | Cost in the United States, USD |
|---|---|
| Neutropenia | “5,321.00” |
Outpatient cost of hand-foot syndrome and fatigue in a United States cost-effectiveness analysis, 2014 United States dollars
| Adverse event | Baseline cost, USD |
|---|---|
| Hand-foot syndrome | “134.48” |
Serum phosphate testing schedule in the pivotal trial of futibatinib
Model outcomes
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: model outcomes
No evidence found.
Outcomes reported by economic evaluations in advanced biliary tract cancer
Outcomes reported by economic evaluations of FGFR inhibitors in cholangiocarcinoma
Outcomes of the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib regimen
Results
Base case
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: base-case results
No evidence found.
Base-case results of United States cost-effectiveness analyses in advanced biliary tract cancer
Base-case budget impact of pemigatinib in Canada
Base-case cost-effectiveness of pemigatinib in Canada
Base-case cost-effectiveness of pemigatinib from the Taiwanese payer perspective
Base-case costs and outcomes of the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib regimen
Base-case cost-effectiveness of pemigatinib from Greek and United States perspectives
Scenario analyses
Budget impact model of lirafugratinib: scenario analyses
No evidence found.
Sensitivity and scenario analyses in economic evaluations of advanced biliary tract cancer
Price reductions required for cost-effectiveness of pemigatinib in Canada
Budget impact scenarios for pemigatinib in Canada
Price and time-horizon scenarios for pemigatinib from the Taiwanese payer perspective
Price and model scenarios in the Taiwanese cost-effectiveness analysis of a biomarker-driven pemigatinib regimen
| Scenario | ICER, NT$ per QALY | INMB, NT$ | Probability of being cost-effective |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | “3,411,098” | “-70,268” | “53.2%” |
| 90% price of pemigatinib | “3,252,339” | “-48,873” | “54.9%” |
| 80% price of pemigatinib | “3,093,579” | “-27,478” | “56.3%” |
| 70% price of pemigatinib | “2,934,819” | “-6,083” | “59.3%” |
| 60% price of pemigatinib | “2,776,060” | “15,313” | “62.6%” |
| 50% price of pemigatinib | “2,617,300” | “36,708” | “66.0%” |
Budget impact model discussion
Summary
No budget impact model of lirafugratinib has been published and no price has been announced, so its budget effect cannot be estimated from public evidence. The population inputs a payer would need are available in part: about 8,000 people in the United States are diagnosed with bile duct cancer each year, FGFR2 fusions or rearrangements occur in 10% to 16% of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas and in approximately 9% of profiled cholangiocarcinomas, 46% of participants with advanced biliary tract cancer in one United States claims cohort initiated second-line therapy, and Relay Therapeutics estimated approximately 11,000 late-line United States patients annually with FGFR2-mediated cancers of any tumour type.
Comparator costs are partly public. A United States retail price of $44,000 per month has been reported for futibatinib, and Canada's Drug Agency estimated pemigatinib at $15,499 per 28 days, with a 3-year public budget impact of $63,606,331 that it considered an underestimate because costs beyond 1 year of treatment were not captured. In England, NICE reports list prices of £7,159.04 for a pack of 14 pemigatinib 13.5 mg tablets, an annual cost of £124,430, and £2,386.33 per pack of futibatinib, both supplied at confidential discounts, and assumed the same time on treatment for futibatinib and pemigatinib. Real-world all-cause health care costs among United States participants treated with pemigatinib were $11,139 per patient per month, and all-cause costs during second-line therapy for advanced biliary tract cancer were $22,617 per patient per month.
Three features of lirafugratinib bear on a budget model. Treatment continues until progression and median progression-free survival in the pivotal cohort was 11.3 months, against 7.0 months for pemigatinib and 9.0 months for futibatinib in their pivotal trials, so drug cost per treated patient depends on duration as well as price. Required ophthalmologic examinations with optical coherence tomography occur every 2 months for 13 months and every 4 months thereafter, compared with every 2 months for 6 months and every 3 months thereafter for the comparators. FGFR2 testing costs are material: the Canadian estimate was about $38,000 per eligible patient identified, NICE estimated £340 for each additional FGFR2-positive person identified by adding FGFR2 to the NHS panel test, a Taiwanese model applied a genetic testing fee of NT$30,000, and the lirafugratinib companion diagnostic had not yet been specified in labeling at approval.